The Nuggets are on the brink of winning their first NBA title in franchise history while the Heat are on the verge of their second Finals loss in four years.
Denver is an 8.5-point home favorite for Game 5 of the NBA Finals Monday night after taking both games in Miami to build a 3–1 series lead. The West’s No. 1 seed is an overwhelming favorite to not only win the title but to do so tonight. The most likely series score at SI Sportsbook is a 4–1 Nuggets win (-450).
If this line holds, it will be the second-largest of the Finals. Denver covered as a 9-point favorite in Game 1 at Ball Arena, lost outright as an 8-point favorite in Game 2 and covered the 3.5-point spread in Game 3 and again in Game 4. The Heat, the second No. 8 seed to ever advance to the championship, have made a habit of pulling off upsets throughout but now they’re on the brink of elimination for just the second time in the playoffs.
Tyler Herro (hand) was upgraded to questionable Monday afternoon and, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, is expected to attempt a return. He last played Game 1 of the first round, which was April 16.
Below are four betting picks and one key question for Game 5 of the NBA Finals, which tips off Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Butler’s scoring has picked up as the series progresses. He finished with 13 and 21 points in the first two games in Denver and then tallied 28 and 25 in Miami. More frequent trips to the free-throw line have certainly helped — he went 6-9 in Game 4, his most makes and attempts so far in the Finals. Butler also hit a higher percentage of his shots at home on more attempts, going 20-41 at Kayesa Center as opposed to 13-33 in the Mile High City. He’s averaged better than 36 points per game across three elimination games over the last two seasons. The Heat need a big game out of Butler in order to extend the series.
Bam Adebayo Stays Hot: Bet Adebayo Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds
Adebayo saved his best for last in the postseason. After a few up-and-down rounds, he’s averaged 22.3 points and 12.5 rebounds in four Finals games. Adebayo has logged three double doubles already and has yet to score fewer than 20 points. He’s been the team’s leading scorer and top rebounder on the biggest stage and he’s gone over his combined points and rebounds prop three times already against Denver (he fell just short in Game 4). Given his recent scoring stats and consistent rebounding numbers, there’s reason to believe Adebayo can once again deliver in Denver, where he went for 26 points and 13 boards in the series opener.
Jamal Murray Orchestrates the Offense: Bet Murray Over 8.5 Assists
Murray has been good for 10 or more dimes in each game of the Finals and he finished with a playoff-high 12 assists last time out. He’s up to 10.5 assists on average in the series, which is ahead of Nikola Jokić’s eight dimes per game. Murray has flashed his playmaking skills on nights where his shot was falling, like Game 3 when he had 34 points and 10 assists. And he still set up his teammates well in Game 4, when he scored 15 points and shot just 5-17 from the field. There’s more juice to be had betting on a Murray double double (+135), but taking the over on his assists might be a bit more manageable in the event his streak ends.
Miami’s Offense Falls Flat Once Again: Bet Heat Under 100.5 Points
The Heat have been held under 100 points in all but one Finals game so far. Their scoring average has dipped to 98.3 points per game after they came into the series as one of the hottest offenses in the playoffs. Miami is shooting 36% from deep against Denver but just 42% from the floor and the free-throw margin is +21 in the Nuggets’ favor. The Heat did have their best game of the series at Ball Arena in Game 2, when they connected on 17 threes and scored 111 points in a win. It might take a similar shooting performance to crack triple digits with a title within reach for Denver.
Will Jokić Average a Triple Double for the Playoffs?
Only three players have ever averaged a triple double for an entire postseason: Oscar Robertson in 1962, Jason Kidd in 2007 and Russell Westbrook in 2017 and 2021. Only Kidd accomplished that feat while playing more than 10 games — Jokić is about to play in his 20th and he’s averaging 30.1 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.8 assists, just a hair shy of joining that exclusive club. If the Nuggets do end up securing the title Monday, Jokić needs 14 assists to raise his average to an even 10 dimes for the playoffs. He’s hit that mark three times already, including in Game 1 of the Finals.